The New Avalanche Season and How to Make It Home
After almost 30 back‑to‑back winters living on the “white planet”, if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s this: safety never comes down to a single factor. It’s a mosaic. A stack of small choices, details and sensations. And that’s probably what I feel like sharing most today.
It’s even more relevant right now, with all the avalanches we’ve seen lately in the Alps. Every time there’s a big snowfall, the same pattern repeats: the number of accidents shoots up. People talk about bad luck, and yes, that exists. But all the serious studies agree on one point: in roughly 90% of avalanche accidents, it’s the victim or someone in their group who triggers the avalanche. In other words, it’s not just “bad conditions”; it’s mostly bad decisions.
Right now, conditions in the Alps are particularly unstable: long dry spells, then intense snowfalls. The base layer is often polished by wind, cold and sun. The new snow ends up resting on something hard, irregular, and fragile. Cohesion is poor. With global warming, I’m afraid this pattern will become more of a rule than an exception.
To find “good” snow, we have to go higher and higher, into steeper, more committing terrain. Places that are less forgiving when we make mistakes. Where we used to learn the basics on small, friendly slopes just outside the resort, that’s often no longer possible. And that, to me, is a real issue.
The first red flags: ourselves
The biggest red flags are not always the weather or the snow. Very often, they’re human factors. Even before I talk about slope angle or aspect, I ask myself a few simple questions: How am I doing in my head today? Clear, focused or already somewhere else? Are my motivations and those of the group aligned? Why are we here: to tick a line, post a photo, follow the strongest, or simply share a good day? Did I sleep well? Am I tired, wired, already running on fumes? Am I hydrated and fuelled, or already in an energy dip at 10:00 a.m.? Then comes my physical state: Am I fit? Am I carrying a virus, low energy, an old injury that might fail me at the wrong time? And of course, there’s the gear: Too hot, too cold, soaked gloves, badly adjusted bindings, skins that don’t stick, boots that hurt… All of that seems minor, but piled up, these small annoyances become distractions. On a tense day, those can tip you to the wrong side of the line.
Only then come snow, weather, and terrain
Environmental factors obviously matter a lot: Do I really know the weather for today and the days before? Do I know where the wind has been loading snow, and where it has stripped it? What about visibility, temperature, the expected evolution through the day? What kind of terrain am I moving through: aspect, slope angle, terrain, concavities, cliffs, forests, glaciers? What do I know about the snowpack: weak layers, old crusts, types of avalanches likely today?
There’s another point that matters to me: respect for wildlife and the environment. Depending on protected areas, wildlife zones or fragile forests, we sometimes should adapt or change our route. It’s an ethical question, of course. But it’s also a question of mindset: if you’re capable of changing your line for chamois, you’ll also be more willing to change it for your own safety.
Little by little, you start to see that mountain safety is not “one thing”. It’s a sum of small elements that, taken alone, may not look dramatic, but together can quietly push you away from the right decision. It’s almost never one single “big mistake” that kills. It’s a series of small imprecisions that stack up without us noticing.
Know it, name it, measure it.
To make good decisions, you need to know all these elements, be able to spot them, name them and evaluate them: Is this acceptable today, for me, for us, here? Or are we already in the red zone? That’s when you realise that off‑piste safety is a real science, and that it requires learning. You can’t just improvise. Every time we go “by feel” only, we are playing Russian roulette… with five bullets in the cylinder. The best way to stay safe is to have a clear method, a shared vocabulary, and to use it together as a group. When everyone speaks the same language, reads the terrain through the same lens, and knows the red flags, the group becomes stronger. When each person has their own “method” in their head, it’s often the most confident one who imposes their view… and that isn’t always the most lucid one.
Gear won’t save you
I hear this all the time: “It’s OK, I’m well equipped.” For me, that’s one of the biggest traps. A shovel, a probe, a transceiver, an airbag… These are not safety devices in the strict sense. They are rescue tools. They come into play after everything has already gone wrong. Yes, they can make the difference. But only once the rest has failed. The only real safety tool you have is your brain. My advice: train it. Strengthen it. Expect more from it than a vague gut feeling. Would you jump out of a plane with a parachute without a single theory lesson? Would you go scuba diving to 30 metres without any training, just with a tank on your back? Yet in skiing, I still see so many people heading into the backcountry with almost no knowledge, telling themselves “It’ll be fine”. The smallest beginner mistake, in that environment, can be final.
Changing the culture of our sport
I’m convinced that our sport needs a real cultural shift. Yes, this is about saving lives. Yes, it’s about reducing accidents. Yes, it’s also about protecting the environment. But beyond that, to me, it’s about preserving our vital space of freedom.
If we keep behaving irresponsibly, the answer will always be the same: more rules, more closures, more red signs, more forbidden zones. And when that happens, we won’t really be able to blame anyone but ourselves. If we want freedom, we first need to accept responsibility and education.
Today, we don’t have many excuses left
We now have online courses, on‑snow training, guides and instructors ready to pass on their experience. I’m convinced that with just a bit of learning, anyone can gain more fun, more freedom, and above all, more safety. If I had one piece of advice before you buy yet another pair of skis, a new goggle or a fancy jacket, it would be this: invest first in your education. A good online course is something you can start at home, warm and comfy, at your own pace. You can go back to it anytime, on your phone or laptop. A few hours in front of a screen can save you a lot of cold sweats and maybe a few tragedies once you’re back in the mountains.
Keep one thing in mind: a skier’s fate is decided before the avalanche, not after. It would be tragic if the best day of your life – the perfect snow, the laughter, the blue sky – flipped in a few seconds into the worst one. I hope these words inspire you to go further, to learn, to sharpen your eye. The mountains are a wonderful world. Once you start to really understand them, they open up like an endless book, full of pages waiting to be written.
I wish you a beautiful winter, safe and full of great powder turns, surrounded by your best friends.
All the best, happy skiing and safe winter.
Words by Dominique Perret
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